Just a reminder that if it seems like there's less on the ole Deeth Blog these days to check out my Des Moines Register stuff. Now on with the clips:
New census numbers mean new analysis of the now year-old presidential election. Marc Ambinder has analysis:
No wonder Republicans worry about a Democratic demographic storm. Young voter turnout has increased at a rate of about 30% per general election since 2000. Indeed, the rate of increase was higher from 2000 to 2004 than from 2004 to 2008.
Or to put it my way: the nation got more like the People's Republic of Johnson County.
Obama has not plummeted among independents, and that needs to be clarified before it becomes erroneous conventional wisdom... There is no evidence that any group of Dems, especially liberal Dems are unhappy with Obama's performance. Critical is that moderate and even conservative Dems have not moved away since August. Angry conservative Reps are indeed very unhappy with Obama, at almost the same level of disgust as Dems felt for Bush, but they too have reached a plateau at a steady 10% approval.
In June Obama had an 82% approval rating with Democrats. Now it's 83%. He had a 46% approval rating with independents. Now it's 47%. No real change on either of those fronts. But with Republicans he's dropped from an 18% mark to just 10%. That shift is what put his approval rating below 50%- he's gone from a small amount of crossover support to a very small amount of crossover support... you have to ask though: was there any chance of many of those people actually voting for him in the future?
Republicans have moved from give the guy a chance tolerance to tea party oppositional defiance.
All this begs the FiveThirtyEight question: How Bad Could Obama Screw Up and Still Beat Sarah Palin? Iowa version: How Bad Could Culver Screw Up and Still Beat Bob Vander Plaats?) Local version: How Bad Could Rettig Screw Up and Still Beat Lori Cardella?
If Cratchit's skills were worth more to anyone than the fifteen shillings Scrooge pays him weekly, there would be someone glad to offer it to him. Since no one has, and since Cratchit's profit-maximizing boss is hardly a man to pay for nothing, Cratchit must be worth exactly his present wages.
No doubt Cratchit needs—i.e., wants—more, to support his family and care for Tiny Tim. But Scrooge did not force Cratchit to father children he is having difficulty supporting. If Cratchit had children while suspecting he would be unable to afford them, he, not Scrooge, is responsible for their plight. And if Cratchit didn't know how expensive they would be, why must Scrooge assume the burden of Cratchit's misjudgment?
I can't tell if this is a joke or not. The fact that I can't tell if this is a joke or not is the main reason why Libertarians have been stuck in the half a percent range for three decades.
But one place where libertarians have it right and are ahead of the curve is drug law:
A Gallup poll in October found 44 percent of Americans favor full legalization of marijuana -- a rise of 13 points since 2000. Gallup said that if public support continues growing at a rate of 1 to 2 percent per year, "the majority of Americans could favor legalization of the drug in as little as four years."
Advocates say the biggest surge came with the election of Barack Obama, the third straight president to acknowledge having smoked marijuana, and the first to regard it with anything like nonchalance.
But on the Free Market, the price of music has dropped to zero, prompting this when I was your age musing from a guy about my age:
The younger generation has no romantic attachments to records as physical objects. To them, music exists as a kind of omnipresent atmospheric resource.
And it’s not that I begrudge them their online treasure troves or bite-size iPods. But I still miss the way it used to be, in the old days, when fans had to invest serious time and money to track down the album or song they wanted.
And it's a Democratic hold in House District 33 in Cedar Rapids, as Kirsten-Running-Marquardt wins with 78% over Republican Joshua Thurston. One of the bluest districts in the state stays blue.
9.5 percent turnout (for Iowa Citians, that's what we saw in the city election). Nearly half the vote on absentee, a sign of the Democratic field operation at work. And Cedar Rapids goes to the polls again in a week for the city runoff...
Back in the early days of teh interwebs, various versions of "the Purity Test" floated about. It was scored like golf; the lower the score, the less "pure" you were and vice versa. Some of the questions on the deluxe 500 question version wend beyond funny into the zone of the disturbing, but it was all meant in good clean (well, dirty) fun.
Of course, the modern GOP would have no part of such a purity test, at least outside the Minneapolis airport bathroom. But a number of members of the Republican National Committee, including Iowa's own Steve Scheffler, are backing a ten question Purity test with a real cost: get more than three wrong and they cut off the $. Apparantly the lessons of New York 23 are not yet learned.
(1) We support smaller government, smaller national debt, lower deficits and lower taxes by opposing bills like Obama’s “stimulus” bill;
(2) We support market-based health care reform and oppose Obama-style government run healthcare;
(3) We support market-based energy reforms by opposing cap and trade legislation;
(4) We support workers’ right to secret ballot by opposing card check;
(5) We support legal immigration and assimilation into American society by opposing amnesty for illegal immigrants;
(6) We support victory in Iraq and Afghanistan by supporting military-recommended troop surges;
(7) We support containment of Iran and North Korea, particularly effective action to eliminate their nuclear weapons threat;
(8) We support retention of the Defense of Marriage Act;
(9) We support protecting the lives of vulnerable persons by opposing health care rationing and denial of health care and government funding of abortion; and
(10) We support the right to keep and bear arms by opposing government restrictions on gun ownership; and be further
RESOLVED, that a candidate who disagrees with three or more of the above stated public policy position of the Republican National Committee, as identified by the voting record, public statements and/or signed questionnaire of the candidate, shall not be eligible for financial support and endorsement by the Republican National Committee
Scheffler, whose political roots are in the Iowa Christian Alliance, was elected to the RNC at the 2008 state convention, ousting longtime member Steve Roberts.
Litmus tests this strong are a bit scary... but why is it that Republicans are able to enforce support for the platform where Democrats can't?
Second Linux Monday in a row as I try to re-establish the feature.
Forget Obama's Nobel Peace Prize; these folks say it should go to Linux founder Linus Torvalds!
Remember Chuck Norris Facts? We ubergeeks have Linus Torvalds facts: "Linus Torvalds can divide by zero. Linus Torvalds can do an infinite loop in five seconds… in his head. Linus Torvalds only has 2 buttons on his keyboard: ‘1′ and ‘0′..." Also, Richard Stallman Facts in tribute to the other godfather of open source.
Cracked takes a crack at the joys of installing Linux:
Ubuntu is slim enough that you can install it inside of Windows. That's right - you can actually have a fully functional, surprisingly powerful OS completely contained within the pale bloated mass that is Windows Vista.
Is it easy? No, but nothing worthwhile ever is. Does it work? Damn right it does.
Plus, penguins are awesome. Just sayin'.
Why can't I pick the technology I use in the office? It's a question I ask every day as all the anti-virus and "security" I have to rune to make Windows as secure as Swiss cheese such up two-thirds of my system resources before I even open an app... Hey, it's the early stages of budget season in local governments around here. When the IT people present theirs, see if you can find out how much your taxes are subsidizing Bill Gates...
I skipped out on Jefferson-Jackson this year; I wasn't the only one as Tom Harkin stayed in DC to vote on health care and Dave Loebsack was MIA on “a mission out of the country,” which likely means some Armed Services related work on the front lines.
No one has updated their campaign music iPod since last year. All they needed was "Beautiful Day" to complete the cliche collection.
Carol Hunter describes applause for the governor as "polite."
The Register also reports "Obama Below 50% Approval," but a closer look shows 49-44 with 7 percent undecided. Basically that means the McCain voters disapprove. As for that seven percent, considering the alternative...
Speaking of which, of the infinite takes on Palin this week, Matt Taibbi has one of the fresher ones:
Listen to Rush any day of the week and you’ll hear him playing the old-fashioned pundit game: he goes about the dreary business of picking through the policies and positions and public statements of Democrats and poking holes in them, arguing with them, attacking them with numbers and facts and pseudo-facts and non-facts and whatever else he can get his hands on, honest or not, but at least he tries.
Sarah Palin’s battlefield, on the other hand, is whatever is happening five feet in front of her face. She is building a political career around the little interpersonal wars in the immediate airspace surrounding her sawdust-filled head. And in the process she connects with pissed-off, frightened, put-upon America on a plane that’s far more elemental than the mega-ditto schtick.
Most normal people cannot connect on an emotional level with Rush’s meanderings on how Harry Reid is buying off Mary Landrieu with pork in the health care bill. They can, however, connect with stories about how top McCain strategist and Karl Rove acolyte Steve Schmidt told poor Sarah to shut her pie-hole on election day...
And now the Johnson County Republicans have set their nominating convention. The Courier has the details and the party line, but the key facts are: Saturday afternoon Dec. 5, Coralville Library, Lori Cardella announced for nomination.
Even though the petition drive was Republican-led (though by no means exclusively partisan), it was still a live question as to whether the GOP was going to take its own name into the election. As noted earlier today, in the last three county-wide specials (1994, 1997, 1999) the GOP did not have an official nominee--but clearly favored an independent-in-name candidate running against an official Democratic nominee.
Personally, I think the label "Republican" is a negative in a 70% Obama county... but that certainly ain't my call to make.
Johnson County Democrats will nominate their candidate for the Jan. 19 special supervisor election at a Dec. 3 convention at the Pappajohn Business Building on the UI campus. Registration begins at 6:30 p.m. and the gavel drops at 7.
"We hope to have special guests and have a short convention," says chair Dennis Roseman in the release. Business will be limited to the nomination itself. Thus far, only appointee Janelle Rettig has announced plans to seek the convention nod.
The delegates and alternates will be those folks elected nearly two years ago on presidential caucus night, but seating will not be by presidential preference group. (Which should be a relief to people who made the then seemingly sensible but now embarrassing choice of John Edwards.)
This is the fourth special election for county office in my two decades here. History lessons: tempers flare, appointees win, the side that petitions loses, the election itself is the main issue, Democrats who bolt the party lose in the following primary, and conservatives have backed independent candidates rather than officially nominating someone under the Republican label. (This last has changed; see next post)
The Coralville Courier is really a must-read with your morning cup of coffee. Actually, tea (as in bag) might be more appropriate. It's a great insight into the mindset of local conservatives as the special election effort moves from petition stage into Lori Cardella campaign stage.
I'm uneasy with criticizing that tactic--like I keep saying, I more than anyone argued in favor of students in the just-finished city election. The petitioners made a good effort and get a Hee-Haw salute:
But it's--let's think of a mild word here... cynical to do so when the rhetoric at the time of the conservation bond recount was, to quote Tom Cardella, "the student body population may override the wishes of long-term rural residents of Johnson County."
And even in attempting to defend the student signatures -- which are legitimate and don't even need defending -- local conservatives' contempt for the students shines through. Deb Thornton writes: "Johnson County Democrats - who by the way, just love all of the student votes, as long as they are voting straight ticket Democrat as they are told!"
There's no way to truly ferret out the student vote; ballots are secret and University enrollment is not on the voter file. But I think even Deb and I can agree that Iowa City precincts 3 and 5 are the most student-dominated precincts.
Iowa City 3: 19.35% Iowa City 5: 19.48% County wide: 19.61%
The students voted straight ticket D a tiny bit lower than average but basically no more or less than any other voters in the county.
But most of Wednesday's sputtering rage of over-the-top rhetoric was directed at Sheriff Lonny Pulkrabek, who wrote in the Tuesday DI:
I will now look forward to the special election so that we can welcome Janelle Rettig to the supervisors a second time and to tell Lori thanks, but no thanks. That $75,000 could have been put to a much better use. It could have been used to pay for the ever-climbing costs of bringing forward a new Justice Center.
Now, I'm not yet convinced on the need for a new building (I could be persuaded, but I want some changes in law and in law enforcement policy in exchange), but Lonny is far more receptive to public opinion and input than his predecessor Bob Carpenter, who went into the 2000 jail bond campaign with the attitude of "I'm the sheriff, I say this is what I need, and how dare you have an opinion."
Lonny started running in 2002, before Carpenter announced his retirement, meaning he was potentially running against his own boss. Hardly the move of a loyal "member of the local Democrat party machine" (though, in fairness, Carpenter was no more a Democrat than the man in the moon) or someone who's afraid of an election.
Yet the headline blares, in the inimitable teabagger style, "Pulkrabek questions Constitutional right to vote." If anyone has questioned people's right to vote, it's Thornton, who led a GOP effort in 2004 that challenged 2000 Johnson County absentee ballots. Most were, you guessed it, students, but others had "flaws" such as living in a Systems Unlimited house or having bad handwriting--an effort that drove one woman with a degenerative disability to tears of rage.
Back to Lonny, an anonymous writer ("from fear of reprisal from my own Sheriff") complains, "You are a sheriff now, sir, supposedly, a non-partisan position."
Uhhh... actually, sheriff is a partisan position. We even had a Republican sheriff here as late as 1988. I seem to remember Lonny beating a Republican who said some rather unfortunate things about his horse.
The rhetoric of Anonymous isn't quite to that level, but "supporter of one party rule, sort of like a dictator" doesn't 1) sound like the Lonny Pulkrabek I know or 2) raise the level of discourse. But it does fit the Tea Party line: Iowa City as Little Chicago. Ostensibly about corruption, but it bashes students, Chicago People If You Know What I Mean, and "President" Barrack Hussein Osama all at once.
The "machine" rhetoric is amusing to this little cog, as it presents the Johnson County Democrats as some sort of efficient monolith, awaiting marching orders. Obviously, these folks have never been to any of our meetings. The Republicans should know about our primary fights, though; enough of them regularly participate as "Democrats for a day" using, as is their right, our rather loose laws on party registration.
This may be as good a point as any to make it clear that Janelle Rettig is not necessarily the Democratic candidate in the Jan. 19 election, though she has announced her intent to seek the nomination at the special convention. (And I've announced my intent to support her at that convention--more info on that as details are announced.)
Back to Anonymous, he/she/it writes: "How about some justice and protection for the south side! It is a war zone down there," apparently unaware that Broadway and Lakeside are city, not county, jurisdictions. (Aside: if the city was less concerned with harassing 18 19 and 20 year old adults downtown, they could devote more resources to public safety in other parts of town.) Just throw enough irrelevant stuff at the wall to see what sticks.
(Anonymous also keeps posting comments on some of my blog's four year old posts, usually about Viagra. I suspect this may be unrelated.)
One thing Anonymous does get right: "How many of the Johnson County Supervisors are Republican? That’s right, NONE!" True, because none have been elected to the job in 50 years. And if the low tone of rhetoric keeps up, Janelle Rettig should extend the Democratic winning streak.
A good and rather objective post at the Iowa Republican on next year's primary for the right to lose to Dave Loebsack (hey, I never claimed objectivity.)
City votes to deny liquor license to the Summit; Summit owner Mike Porter (the political deep pockets behind 2007's successful no campaign on the 21 bar issue) sues the city. At issue is the policy of basing license renewals on the rate of PAULA citations (that's Possession of Alcohol Under Legal Age for you non-Iowa Citians)
Read the full lawsuit at the Gazette. The gist is, says the PC:
The lawsuit states the resolution is illegal because, among other things, it:
Does not require a PAULA conviction, only a citation;
The city is intentionally targeting certain establishments; and
Punishes plaintiffs retroactively by considering PAULA citations before the resolution's adoption.
That's an ex post facto law, for you first year law students.
It's great that Mike is taking on this fight now, even though it's self-interest. I wish we'd seen him get engaged in this year's city election, but the choices weren't especially credible. (I noticed BoJames owner and 2001 candidate Leah Cohen on Terry Dickens' donor list--is that an indicator of sorts?)
The Register points out some ugly incidents tied to abusive drinking by young people, and that sort of stuff needs to stop. But we can't credibly address those until we have a credible attitude toward the drinking age. How many crimes have gone unreported because the victim is afraid of getting in trouble for "underage" (sic) drinking?
If I were on the council, which I'm not or ever planing to be, I'd ask for those PAULA citations broken out: 17 and under minors vs. 18-20 ADULTS. Every time this comes up, I want to hear someone on the council saying "This is a bad law that should be changed."
The council met a couple months back to discuss legislative priorities. Where was the drinking age? Nowhere.
I'm not quite to the point of calling for the city to commit civic disobedience and stop enforcing this law; nullification is an ugly legal ground with an ugly history.
What I am looking for is public statements, I'm looking for lobbying the legislature.
I've helped a lot of city candidates in the past and overlooked differences on alcohol issues. I'm not going to do so in 2011. Freak Power on The Prairie candidates, call me.
It's Sarah Palin week and while far too many bytes have been wasted here's a couple takes worth reading:
Jon Meacham at Newsweek seems to see Palin as the spiritual godmother to teabaggerism: "Her political celebrity is so powerful that it has reduced a large part of the Republican Party to irrationality and civic incoherence. According to Gallup, Republicans are more likely to say they would seriously consider voting for Palin for president (65 percent) than to say she is qualified for the job (58 percent)."
In the same publication, the unpredictable but always interesting Christopher Hitchens is harsher:
The problem with populism is not just that it stirs prejudice against the "big cities" where most Americans actually live, or against the academies where many of them would like to send their children. No, the difficulty with populism is that it exploits the very "people" to whose grievances it claims to give vent...
The Palin problem, then, might be that she cynically incites a crowd that she has no real intention of pleasing. If she were ever to get herself to the nation's capital, the teabaggers would be just as much on the outside as they are now, and would simply have been the instruments that helped get her elected. In my own not-all-that-humble opinion, duping the hicks is a degree or two worse than condescending to them.
Much like Reagan, or closer to home in that same era our own resrugent Terry Branstad.
Branstad, of course, may have his own problems; the consensus conventional wisdom emerging from the weekend Register poll is that it undercuts his electability argument and that Republicans will look at it and want to go for the whole schmeet with Vander Plaats. (My thought is that the still largely undefined BVP has nowhere to go but down, hopefully after clinching a nasty nomination.)
Geek Alert: Andrew Gelman at FiveThirtyEight explains "Why Compact, Contiguous Districts are Bad for the Democrats".
Geek Alert 2: Weird Al lists his "9 Most Underrated Funny Songs" (other than his own). What kind of ice cream do the Martians like?
So there's going to be an election. Date's set for January 19.
First off, congrats to the petitioners. Believe it or not--and look back over the blog--I'm actually agnostic on the appoint vs. elect issue. Fifteen years ago, I was on the petitioning side for an election a lot like this. There's a process, the petitioners made a good effort, so it goes.
That said, two things.
First, I'll be supporting Janelle Rettig for the Democratic nomination and in the election.
Second, a note on how the petitioners got their names. "Well, they were all over the Pentacrest yesterday at lunchtime, and most people had no idea what they were signing, from what I could hear," writes Aletia Morgan at my Facebook page.
I have nothing against the petitioners soliciting student signatures. I argued loudly in the city election that the students were full-fledged, and under-represented, members of our community. Property qualifications for voting were eliminated even before race and gender qualifications were.
But there's a big group of people in this town who openly argue that students shouldn't be allowed to vote. Last year the conservation bond opponents, Lori Cardella chief among them, argued that students should not be allowed to vote on local matters because they're not "taxpayers". “The student body population may override the wishes of long-term rural residents of Johnson County,” she said a year ago in the losing Flip No effort.
Now, Cardella puts herself forward as the likely candidate for the special election, and that attitude is relevant in how she hopes to represent the community.
I'm glad that the petitioners tacitly recognized that students have a right to participate in Johnson County's political process, even if it was only to serve their own interests. But in doing so, don't they by extension acknowledge the legitimacy of the conservation bond?
Kirsten Running-Marquardt, the Democratic candidate in the Nov. 24 special election in House District 33, is having a get-together at the home of Bob and Sue Dvorsky, 5 to 7 tonight. That's 412 6th Ave., Coralville.
Rod Sullivan is hosting a pre-game party at his home with Dave Loebsack. That's 2326 E. Court St., 11:30-1:30.
And US Senate candidate Bob Krause will be at the Mill Sunday afternoon 2 to 3:30.
Secure in the wake of last week's Iowa City election, the University's neo-Prohibitionists are at it again with. Yesterday's Daily Iowan offers this bit from Wallace Loh, UI executive vice president and provost, and Tom Rocklin, interim vice president for Student Services:
We’re funding alcohol-free social activities. We’re communicating with parents regularly. We also administer sanctions. We suspend students and allow readmission only under strict conditions. With advice of counsel, we’re revising our policies to extend UI jurisdiction over student misconduct that occurs off-campus.
Soulnds like a return to in loco parentis to me. How many non-alcohol alternatives do we have to subsidize before we listen to what 18, 19 and 20 year old adults really want? As usual, the comments are better than the aricle itself:
Here's my radical idea: how about stopping the continued harassment of students? In Europe (and in just about every other country that values personal freedom), cops don't routinely harass students like here, forcing them to drink in large quantities secretly in the corner of Jakes in a short amount of time, causing them to become paranoid and sometimes unnaturally violent, before the cops show up to hand out another PAULA. They don't have the luxury of drinking in peace, so they get drunk in other ways. See the problem here? It's NOT the students, Iowa City city council and the university, and it never has been. YOU are the problem.
Of course, we HAD the chance to change this last week and elect some students to the city council, but their own peers let them down and no grown-ups wanted to go there.
Also from the comments, more concise and to the point:
If you're old enough to take a bullet for your country in Afghanistan, you're old enough to drink a beer. Period.
Loh and Rocklin, of course, make no acknowledgement at all of this critical point. We can't address the very real problem of alcohol abuse until we recognize the rights of legal adults.
Tell your city council members to take the cops from downtown and send them someplace where actual crime is happening.
Tell your state legislators to shove the federal highway money.
About Me: John Deeth is a Des Moines Register guest blogger who has been featured in publications ranging from the Drudge Report to the Huffington Post. His past affiliations include WSUI radio (NPR) and Iowa Independent. Deeth and his trademark raspberry beret were a frequent presence on the 2007 Iowa caucus scene.
Deeth is also a political activist in Johnson County and the Democratic Party, and ran for the Iowa legislature in 1996.
The John Deeth Blog, recently listed as one of the top state-level political blogs by the Washington Post, has been published since Dec. 31, 2002. John's writing interests include electoral politics in general and Iowa politics in particular, popular music and culture, and technology.
John lives in Iowa City, Iowa, with his wife Koni Steele, their sons Hayden and Ethan, and their cats. Their family also includes their daughter Jimiya and grandson Elias.
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